# Commission Decision (EU) 2015/1877 of 20 April 2015 on tariffs charged by S.C. Hidroelectrica SA of Romania to S.C. Termoelectrica SA and S.C. Electrocentrale Deva SA — SA.33475 (12/C) (notified under document number C(2015) 2648) (Only the English text is authentic) (Text with EEA relevance), Division: Results of the econometric analysis

Extent: E+W+S+N.I.

Table 1
Regression analysis
Source
SS
df
MS
Number of obs 137
F(5,131) 14,73
Prob > F 0,0000
R-squared 0,3598
Adj R-squared 0,3354
Root MSE 23,937
Model
4218,7868
5
8436,95736
Residual
75057,7748
131
572,960113
Total
117242,562
136
862,077659
Average price RON ~ h
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P > |t|
[95 % Conf. Interval]
Annual quantity GWh
– ,0114518
,0078662
– 1,46
0,148
– ,027013
,0041094
year
2008
26,39286
6,212094
4,25
0,000
14,10385
38,68186
2009
44,00499
6,668892
6,60
0,000
30,81234
57,19765
2010
32,16928
6,525077
4,93
0,000
19,26112
45,07744
2011
49,21547
6,458884
7,62
0,000
36,43826
61,99268
_cons
153,9978
5,159037
29,85
0,000
143,792
164,2036
The following tables present the results of the empirical analysis which uses the regression analysis detailed in Table 1 when, for each year, the MUD is selected on the basis of the difference in price levels (in RON/MWh) between each contract’s estimated price and its corresponding observed price. Tables 2 and 3 below present the differences between Hidroelectrica’s contractual purchase prices per each of the years (i.e.: 2009-2011) vis-à-vis the simulated price benchmark for the two companies under investigation.
In 2009, the MUD contract, that is the contract in the dataset with the highest difference between the observed price and its corresponding estimated price, has a price difference estimated at 69,73 RON/MWh. None of the two contracts between Hidroelectrica and Termoelectrica and Electrocentrale Deva has an observed price above their estimated price with a price difference larger than 69,73 RON/MWh (see Table 2).
In 2010, the MUD contract has a price difference estimated at 45,36 RON/MWh. Both contracts between Hidroelectrica and Termoelectrica and Electrocentrale Deva have an observed price above their estimated price with a price difference larger than 45,36 RON/MWh, that is a difference of 53,05 RON/MWh for the contract with Termoelectrica and 51,37 RON/MWh for the contract with Electrocentrale Deva (see Table 2).
In 2011, the MUD contract has a price difference estimated at 30,12 RON/MWh. The two contracts between Hidroelectrica and Termoelectrica and respectively between Hidroelectrica and Electrocentrale Deva have an observed price above their estimated price with a price difference larger than 30,12 RON/MWh, that is a difference of 38,62 RON/MWh for the contract with Termoelectrica and 32,64 RON/MWh for the contract with Electrocentrale Deva (see Table 2).
Table 2
Analysis of contracts in the relevant period 2009-2011
(RON/MWh)
TERMOELECTRICA
2009
2010
2011
Observed price (OP)
227,40
230,00
234,40
Predicted price (PP)
187,69
176,95
195,78
Difference (OP-PP)
39,71
53,05
38,62
MUD
69,73
45,36
30,12
Difference Observed price – Predicted price + MUD
< MUD
7,69
8,50
ELECTROCENTRALE DEVA
2009
2010
2011
Observed price (OP)
230,20
234,00
234,00
Predicted price (PP)
192,28
182,63
201,54
Difference (OP-PP)
37,92
51,37
32,46
MUD
69,73
45,36
30,12
Difference Observed price – Predicted price + MUD
< MUD
6,01
2,34
The results above show that the prices paid by Hidroelectrica to both Termoelectrica and Electrocentrale Deva in 2010 and 2011 are above a reasonable benchmark determined by the dataset contracts. However, this comparison is made between retail contracts (all contracts in the dataset) and wholesale contracts between Hidroelectrica and Electrocentrale Deva and Termoelectrica. In other words, the simulated benchmark prices include retailing costs which the two contracts did not incur and, therefore, the simulated benchmark prices are higher than corresponding wholesale prices. In order to capture this difference, it is therefore indispensable to deduce a retail margin of 5 % from the absolute value of the MUD. The results are shown in the table below and further confirm prices above a market benchmark in 2010 and 2011 for the two suppliers:
Table 3
Analysis of contracts by applying a 5 % retail margin reduction for the relevant period 2009-2011
(RON/ MWh)
TERMOELECTRICA
2009
2010
2011
Observed price (OP)
227,40
230,00
234,40
Predicted price (PP)
187,69
176,95
195,78
Difference (OP-PP)
39,71
53,05
38,62
MUD
69,73
45,36
30,12
Difference Observed price – ((Predicted price + MUD) – 5 %)
< MUD
18,81
19,80
ELECTROCENTRALE DEVA
2009
2010
2011
Observed price (OP)
230,20
234,00
234,00
Predicted price (PP)
192,28
182,63
201,54
Difference (OP-PP)
37,92
51,37
32,46
MUD
69,73
45,36
30,12
Difference Observed price – ((Predicted price + MUD) – 5 %)
< MUD
17,41
13,92
In conclusion, the econometric analysis indicates contract prices for Termoelectrica and Electrocentrale Deva above market prices. However, given the wide interval of uncertainty which is not captured by the model, the conclusion of the econometric analysis needs to be complemented with additional economic information on market-conformity of Hidroelectrica's behaviour and/or other contract data.

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Source: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/eudn/2015/1877/annex/division/2 (the official version)
Page: https://openlegislation.uk/eu-decision-2015-1877/annex/division-2
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Source: legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives.