Division Table 17 Simulated distribution of yield curve at 10 years
United Kingdom
| 1992 - 2013 VAR model simulation | 10 Yr (P) vs. 1992-2013 VAR model simulation | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| […] | […] | […] | ||||
| Spot in 10 years time | VAR simulation 10 years ahead (June 2024) | VAR simulation 10 years ahead (June 2024) | ||||
| Tenor | 10 Yr (P) | Median | 95 % percentile | Distance from median (ppts) | Distance from 95th percentile (ppts) | 10 Yr (P) + 1,5 ppt probability |
| 1 Yr | 3,47 | 3,80 | 6,20 | – 0,33 | – 2,72 | 19 % |
| 2 Yr | 3,55 | 4,00 | 6,24 | – 0,45 | – 2,69 | 21 % |
| 3 Yr | 3,62 | 4,16 | 6,24 | – 0,54 | – 2,61 | 22 % |
| 4 Yr | 3,70 | 4,31 | 6,20 | – 0,61 | – 2,50 | 21 % |
| 5 Yr | 3,78 | 4,44 | 6,17 | – 0,66 | – 2,39 | 20 % |
| 7 Yr | 3,93 | 4,64 | 6,20 | – 0,71 | – 2,27 | 19 % |
| 9 Yr | 4,09 | 4,76 | 6,19 | – 0,66 | – 2,10 | 15 % |
| 10 Yr | 4,17 | 4,79 | 6,14 | – 0,62 | – 1,97 | 13 % |
| 12 Yr | 4,11 | 4,88 | 6,15 | – 0,77 | – 2,03 | 15 % |
| 15 Yr | 4,07 | 4,97 | 6,09 | – 0,89 | – 2,02 | 17 % |
| 20 Yr | 4,07 | 4,99 | 6,12 | – 0,92 | – 2,05 | 17 % |
| 30 Yr | 3,98 | 4,97 | 6,08 | – 1,00 | – 2,10 | 20 % |
| 50 Yr | 3,91 | 5,01 | 6,04 | – 1,10 | – 2,13 | 24 % |