Division France

Suggestions for corrective measures:

1. 1..

   Traffic: In July 2015, compared to the information provided in the initial performance plan, France already revised upwards the traffic planned over RP2 (by + 2,9 % on average), bringing the planned traffic forecast in line with the low-case Statfor February 2015 scenario. However, based on the actual 2015 traffic and the latest February 2016 forecast provided by Statfor, it is suggested that the planned traffic be further revised upwards to reflect the latest available information.

2. 2..

   Interest rate on debt: France assumed an interest rate on debts of 2,7 % for its ANSP (DSNA) over RP2. However, the monetary conditions have significantly evolved. Currently, long-term ‘risk-free’ government bond interest rates for France are historically low and based on the European Central Bank data, the harmonised long-term rate is below 1 %. Moreover, DSNA is not a corporatised entity and its debt (and associated risk premium) can be more closely assimilated to the long-term government benchmark rate. It is therefore suggested that France uses a lower interest rate to compute DSNA cost of capital.

Adjusting the planned traffic for 2018 and 2019 and capping the interest rate on debt, for example, at 1,5 % for the years 2018 and 2019 would result in an en route determined unit cost trend over the second reference period of – 2,2 % per year which is closer to the Union-wide trend (– 3,3 % per year) and an en route determined unit cost trend over the combined period of the first and the second reference period of – 1,1 % per year which is closer to the Union-wide target (– 1,7 % per year).