Division Step 1 Likelihood of establishment and spreading beyond the intended area of introduction

United Kingdom

Event	Likelihood(H, M, L)^f1	Certainty(VC, RC, RU, VU)^f2	Comments in support of assessment^f3
H = High, M = Medium, L = Low
VC = Very certain, RC = Reasonably certain, RU = Reasonably uncertain, VU = Very uncertain
The assessor is referred for guidance to Appendix A and Appendix B of the ICES Code of Practice.
The final rating for the likelihood of establishment and spreading is assigned the value of the element with the lowest rating (for example, high and low ratings for the above elements would result in a final low rating). Again, both events — probability of the organism successfully colonising and maintaining a population in the intended area of introduction (be it a confined environment such as a facility, or a natural habitat) and the probability of spreading beyond the intended area of introduction (estimated as explained above) — need to occur in order to have establishment beyond the intended area of introduction. The final rating for the level of Certainty is assigned the value of the element with the lowest level of certainty (e.g. very certain and reasonably certain ratings would result in a final reasonably certain rating). The harmfulness of a establishment and spreading should be taken into account, together with risk/benefit ration, in arriving at the final rating.
The introduced or translocated species, escaped or dispersed, successfully colonises and maintains a population in the intended area of introduction beyond the control of the aquaculture facility.
The introduced species or translocated, escaped or dispersed, spreads beyond the intended area of introduction.
Final rating^f4

Annotations

Footnotes

f1

H = High, M = Medium, L = Low

f2

VC = Very certain, RC = Reasonably certain, RU = Reasonably uncertain, VU = Very uncertain

f3

The assessor is referred for guidance to Appendix A and Appendix B of the ICES Code of Practice.

f4

The final rating for the likelihood of establishment and spreading is assigned the value of the element with the lowest rating (for example, high and low ratings for the above elements would result in a final low rating). Again, both events — probability of the organism successfully colonising and maintaining a population in the intended area of introduction (be it a confined environment such as a facility, or a natural habitat) and the probability of spreading beyond the intended area of introduction (estimated as explained above) — need to occur in order to have establishment beyond the intended area of introduction.

The final rating for the level of Certainty is assigned the value of the element with the lowest level of certainty (e.g. very certain and reasonably certain ratings would result in a final reasonably certain rating). The harmfulness of a establishment and spreading should be taken into account, together with risk/benefit ration, in arriving at the final rating.