Division 3 Identification of risks

Describe the risk factors which could have negative impact on the security of gas supply in F1the United Kingdom, their likelihood and consequences.

Non-exhaustive list of types of risk factors that have to be included in the assessment only if applicable according to the F2Secretary of State:

1. (a)

   political

   • F3gas disruption from countries outside of the United Kingdom because of different reasons,

   • political unrest (either in country of origin or in transit country),

   • war/civil war (either in country of origin or in transit country),

   • terrorism;

2. (b)

   technological

   • explosion/fires,

   • fires (internal to a given facility),

   • leakages,

   • lack of adequate maintenance,

   • equipment malfunction (failure to start, failure during working time, etc.),

   • lack of electricity (or other energy source),

   • ICT failure (hardware or software failure, internet, SCADA problems, etc.),

   • cyber-attack,

   • impact due to excavation works (digging, piling), ground works, etc.;

3. (c)

   commercial/market/financial

   • F4agreements with suppliers outside of the United Kingdom,

   • commercial dispute,

   • control of infrastructure relevant for the security of gas supply by third-country entities, which may imply, among others, risks of underinvestment, undermining diversification or non-respect of Union law,

   • price volatility,

   • underinvestment,

   • sudden, unexpected peak demand,

   • other risks which could lead to structural underperformance;

4. (d)

   social

   • strikes (in different related sectors, such as the gas sector, ports, transport, etc.),

   • sabotage,

   • vandalism,

   • theft;

5. (e)

   natural

   • earthquakes,

   • landslides,

   • floods (heavy rain, river),

   • storms (sea),

   • avalanches,

   • extreme weather conditions,

   • fires (external to the facility, like nearby forests, grassland, etc.).