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Division 1.3 Assessment of climate impacts, vulnerability and risks, including adaptive capacity:

United Kingdom

Original text. Later amendments are not shown.

  1. a))

    overview of observed climate hazards among the ones listed in Table 1f1 and existing pressuresf2;

  2. b))

    identification of key future climate hazards from the ones listed in Table 1 and key affected sectorsf3.

    Table 1 - Classification of climate-related hazards f4

    Temperature-relatedWind-relatedWater-relatedSolid mass-related
    ChronicChanging temperature (air, freshwater, marine water)Changing wind patternsChanging precipitation patterns and types (rain, hail, snow/ice)Coastal erosion
    Precipitation and/or hydrological variabilitySoil degradation (including desertification)
    Temperature variabilityOcean acidificationSoil erosion
    Permafrost thawingSaline intrusionSolifluction
    Sea level rise
    Change in sea ice cover
    Water scarcity
    AcuteHeat waveCycloneDroughtAvalanche
    Cold wave/frostStorm (including blizzards, dust and sandstorms)Heavy precipitation (rain, hail, snow/ice)Landslide
    WildfireTornadoFlood (coastal, fluvial, pluvial, ground water, flash)Subsidence
    Snow and ice load
    Glacial lake outburst
  3. c))

    For each key affected sector, overview of the following, rated on qualitative scales of high/medium/low/not applicable, with accompanying explanation as appropriatef5:

    1. i..

      observed impacts of key hazards, including changes in frequency and magnitude;

    2. ii..

      likelihood of the occurrence of key hazards and exposure to them under future climate, drawing upon the best available climate modelling science;

    3. iii..

      vulnerability, including adaptive capacity;

    4. iv..

      risk of potential future impacts.

Annotations

Footnotes

f1

The list is not exhaustive.

f2

Member States shall report existing environmental, economic and social pressures that are likely to be significantly affected by climate change: e.g. loss of biodiversity, poor harvest, energy poverty, unemployment, migration.

f3

Member States shall select key sectors among the following: Agriculture and food, biodiversity (including ecosystem-based approaches), buildings, coastal areas, civil protection and emergency management, energy, finance and insurance, forestry, health, marine and fisheries, transport, urban, water management, ICT (information and communications technology), land use planning, business, industry, tourism, rural development, other [please specify].

f4

Where relevant, Member States shall also consider secondary effects of these hazards, such as forest fires, spread of invasive species and tropical diseases, cascading effects, and multiple hazards occurring at the same time.

f5

The analysis outlined in points (i) to (iv) shall apply the best available science for vulnerability and risk analysis by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the latest Commission guidance on the climate proofing of the Union-funded projects.

Notes on Division 1

Footnotes

f1

‘Adaptive capacity’ as defined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5): ‘The ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences.’