Article 23 Methodology for resource adequacy assessmentF7

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is based on appropriate central reference scenarios of projected demand and supply including an economic assessment of the likelihood of retirement, mothballing, new-build of generation assets and measures to reach energy efficiency and electricity interconnection targets and appropriate sensitivities on extreme weather events, hydrological conditions, wholesale prices and carbon price developments;

contains separate scenarios reflecting the differing likelihoods of the occurrence of resource adequacy concerns which F5a capacity mechanism is designed to address;

appropriately takes account of the contribution of all resources including existing and future possibilities for generation, energy storage, sectoral integration, demand response, and import and export and their contribution to flexible system operation;

anticipates the likely impact of the measures referred in Article 20(3);

includes variants without existing or planned capacity mechanisms and, where applicable, variants with such mechanisms;

is based on a market model using the flow-based approach, where applicable;

applies probabilistic calculations;

applies a single modelling tool;

includes at least the following indicators referred to in Article 25:

• ‘expected energy not served’, and

• ‘loss of load expectation’;

identifies the sources of possible resource adequacy concerns, in particular whether it is a network constraint, a resource constraint, or both;

takes into account real network development;

ensures that the national characteristics of generation, demand flexibility and energy storage, the availability of primary resources and the level of interconnection are properly taken into consideration.